In previous posts I have noted that the discussion of the EMP threats to the United States, from weapons acquired by terrorist organizations or (as of much more concern recently) rogue or hostile smaller states like North Korea (and possibly Iran in the future) have largely taken place in conservative media. It is true that a fewer high profile conservative politicians like Newt Gingrich have discussed the threat, but their warnings tend to be forgotten. The most notable Democratic (Clinton era) appointee to talk about this has been former CIA director James Woolsey, who thinks that North Korea already could have the ability to launch such an attack from a satellite as well as an ICBM.
It is also true that the Department of Energy (in Oak Ridge TN) and National Academy of Sciences have been publishing peer-reviewed papers on the threat (most notably with respect to large solar storms) for a number of years, as I found when I made a personal trip to Oak Ridge in July 2013, which I have already covered on older blogs.
On Dec. 20, Dennis Santiago, Managing Director, Total Bank Solutions and US National Policy Strategic Thinker published a piece in the “liberal” Huffington Post, “Neutering North Korea’s EMP Threat: Making the US Power Grid Impervious Is Achievable”. (I thought, that meant neutering Kim Jong Un like he had been a tomcat, something Milo would say.) Quickly, I discovered that Santiago had presented two other sophistries (first, second) in Huffington, in September; so my complaint that the liberals have been sleeping on the EMP threat is no longer entirely correct. But I only found out about the current article from a tweet this evening from New Hampshire-based Resilient Grid. The September Issue reported an explicitly EMP threat from North Korea, but Fox had reported this too.
In the second article, Santiago had covered some of the technicalities of missile defense against especially FOBS, which may be related to Shining Star and the threats Woolsey had mentioned. It’s really quite intricate. But the interception strategies against an orbiting device may be more sophisticated than those against a “conventional” (oxymoron) ICBM.
Santiago’s recommendations comprise three major areas. First, he supposes that a possible EMP attack might offer a lead time as long as 90 minutes. He recommends that electric utilities rehearse war games to draw down the grids, with brownouts or blackouts, so that transformers can’t be overloaded so much. He and others have also talked about newer methods of grounding transformers so they are less vulnerable. Dominion Power of Virginia has recently aired TV spots (especially on CNN) saying that it is developing a smart grid that can anticipate failures. I hope this means they are implementing some of these suggestions.
He then points out that America as a whole needs to decentralize its power generation. That would logically mean that most owners of single family or large townhomes ought to be incentivized to provide their own solar panels or other power sources like gas. I recently downsized and moved into a highrise condo. In the house, I actually had a generator that came into heavy use after the derecho of 2012. Had I stayed, I probably would have needed to consider not only a new roof but also a solar system. But making highrise condos and apartments and commercial buildings less grid-dependent sounds like a challenge. Ironically, Dominion Power recently forced a short outage in my own new location to install new underground cables and, I hope, some of the newer grounding technologies.
He also points out that regulations often discourage decentralization (that’s normally a conservative position, rather analogous to opposing legally driven network neutrality). The securities markets, especially bonds, could be rattled by sudden changes in energy policy, or even by unfavorable publicity, which I am probably giving them with this blog posting. But he says markets could be legally reformed rather easily to encourage local homeowners and businesses to become more self-sufficient in their own energy management, and even to be able to sell solar or wind power pack to the grid.
There’s another aspect to the newest article that seems striking: Santiago seems to suggest that the administration, most of all DOD and DHS, is well aware of the EMP threats and are perhaps paralyzed as to what to do. The administration does not seem to want to take a public position on the issue and force reforms on utilities perhaps out of fear on the effect on the markets. I have tweeted “Real Donald Trump” myself about the issue, and I’ve wondered if Trump cognitively understands the nature of the threat given unprecedented American and western dependence on technology. Santiago apparently thinks the president does understand. But if the U.S, could neutralize the EMP threat, and go public with its policies, it could afford to become much more aggressive in its policies toward any future provocations (like missile tests with actual weapons over the Pacific Ocean), as the ransom of American civilian technology life would be removed from the table.
It seems more likely that North Korea could detonate a fission weapon (or some sort of microwave device) in the air than a thermonuclear hydrogen bomb; so the real practical threat to the US homeland is more likely to be the E1 threat, which affects electronics more than the grid itself, than E3, which is more like a Carrington solar storm. As I indicated before, this would raise questions about how well companies have secured their data centers from external microwave-like pulses (with Faraday-like protection and distribution of cloud data with multiple redundancies).
I won’t belabor it here much, but the whole question of decentralization also begs the question of what “we” expect of individuals and families along the line of “The Survival Mom” thinking. Hyperindividualism and weaker social structures (vertical and horizontal) become pertinent. The gravity of this topic seems far afield from most of their irreverant complaints about the current administration and “President Poopiepants” (or, as David Brooks once wrote, the idea that the president is a child), along with fat-shaming of Kim Jong In, quoting our own president (and Milo) that you can find on Facebook. Not only is there weaker social cohesion in out outspoken civilian society; there is little respect for current leadership (most of all in social media), which is something, related to resilience at a citizen level, that enemies have already noticed. Look at what the Russians have done already, and North Korea seems so much more fanatical, a kind of communist Al Qaeda.
(Posted: Thursday, December 22, 2017 at 10:15 PM EST)
Update: Sunday, December 24, 2017 at 10 AM EDT
Various media sources report that North Korea calls the newest UN sanctions as an act of war.
There is also a threat of deploy biological agents by missile, or covertly.
If James Woolsey were right, based on his announcement in March, Kim Jong Un could launch an E1-level EMP (frying unshielded electronics but not the power grids) over eastern US when his shining star satellite orbited into the right position, right now.
At 2 PM EST
The Washington Examiner, a conservative paper, reports, in an article by Paul Bedard, that President Trump will address the electromagnetic pulse threats explicitly and is the first president to do so. The implies that the topic has been coming up at national security meetings, probably even at Mar a Lago (no, I haven’t been invited, yet). I have tweeted Trump explicitly on this topic several times since early July and mentioned the important distinction between E1 (far more likely) and E3 to him. I’ve also discussed this with OANN and with WJLA (Sinclair). Maybe the corner is being turned. Still, the mainstream media companies largely choke on this topic. I’d expect to see Breitbart and Milo weigh in!
One more question: how long will it take the power companies to do what Trump supposedly promise (upgrade grounding circuits, for example, which Dominion Energy seems to be doing) and for the tech companies and server farms to have their centers fully “Faraday” shielded? Recovery won’t be as easy as the 2001 movie “Oceans 11” makes it look.